China’s rhetoric and actions show clear escalation. Also I think they’ll test their shuiqiao floating dock ships again in the next drills. They’re building up capacity with a 2027 deadline so I think more drills are likely
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Relative Brier Score
15
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
93%
Yes
7%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
These happen in response to “Taiwanese provocations” so I guess if Taiwan doesn’t do anything diplomatically it could not happen within the question’s timeline
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
Yes
5%
No
Why do you think you're right?
She’s maintaining a tight balancing act, but so far has been able to pull it off. Trump seems to be intent to leave her in power for now and by the end of April I don’t see a coup happening from Padrino and Cabello, although this could change quickly. But there isn’t anyone to replace her, Trump has made it clear that he didn’t support the democratically elected leaders of Venezuela’s opposition party, so I think she’ll stay
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Things are volatile in Venezuela and Trump could change his mind on a dime.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
98%
Yes
2%
No
Why do you think you're right?
This seems very likely, NK has not been shy about showing off its missile capabilities. This is what it’s doing instead of nuclear testing so it’s likely to do it again in this timefrsme
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It’s hard to forecast an unpredictable regime like NK, much less its missile launch schedule within a two month timeframe
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
China is facing big issues like high youth unemployment, excess manufacturing capacity, and decreased capital inflows like FDI. ALS its province level debt levels are super high. I think q2 is still too early for 5% because the new trade deals like with Canada won’t have enough effect so soon and China needs more than that to release pressure on EV/battery manufacturing oversupply
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China is still the most technologically advanced nation on the planet behind the U.S. and is still pumping tons of money into its state-subsidized industries
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(+1%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
I actually think Moldova is lower because Russia wants Transnistria right where it is, as a thorn in the side of the EU and a consistent place for Russian interference without actually claiming them or invading
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They could still send in troops to protect Transnistria against claimed European/moldovan aggression
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Too early. I could also see this happening from China because of Taiwan but it all still feels too early. Being an act of war, perhaps non-state actor is the most likely, but it only makes sense for a country to do this
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps a country rolls the dice and does this without claiming attribution. Or if the U.S. strikes Iran it could be a retaliatory strike
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The weather has been weird this year. To me the most likely is either historic averages of less than 2 inches, or a big nor’easter comes in and dumps a ton of snow, like the eastern seaboard got in January. There’s already one coming close on Feb 1st
Why might you be wrong?
Weather is notoriously hard to forecast