Confirmed previous forecast
0.116811
Relative Brier Score
215
Forecasts
9
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 18 | 18 | 246 | 215 | 1006 |
| Comments | 16 | 16 | 181 | 160 | 368 |
| Questions Forecasted | 18 | 18 | 64 | 53 | 204 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 32 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
They’re still “negotiating” but neither will budge on terms. This isn’t getting done this year
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I’m not. They’re too far apart on terms. So far the majority of Ukrainians are not willing to cede land, especially not all the land that Russia wants. And Russia declared the Donbas constitutionally part of Russia so they’re not going to budge either
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
January 2026 is way too short a time horizon for this to happen.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This one isn’t happening, there’s no chance. I don’t think I’m at all wrong on this one
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Confirmed previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-10%)
Yes
95%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Still seems unlikely. Maybe something will change after the new year. Same rationale as before but I think I had my probabilities too high
Files
Why might you be wrong?
All EU countries know and understand the threat of Russia and what it means for Ukraine to accept peace while ceding so much territory
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
This seems very unlikely given how May resources and Russian lives were spent in ukraine
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin is getting old and has clearly stated his ambitions
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Same rationale as before but more with passing of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Any country that faces the kind of economic and natural challenges like water that Egypt does could see economic collapse, especially with youth unemployment so high
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
For this to be deliberate it would have to be a prelude to war on the U.S. or a U.S. NATO ally. This is most likely not to happen unless Russia attacks a nato country like Finland or Lithuania.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia still claims to be after the baltics, so it’s always possible. Moldova is another potential target after Ukraine
Files
Why do you think you're right?
For this to happen peace talks would have to conclude and those aren’t concluding before the end of the year. If it were possible to have below 0% chance this would be it
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps there’s another reason they would deploy besides the peace talks? I mean logically that wouldn’t make sense but I’m trying to find something