Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Started Jan 02, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 09, 2025 02:00PM UTC

In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a successor despite multiple votes, and the country remains in the hands of a caretaker administration (Associated Press, Reuters). This extended period without a president presents a serious risk to Lebanon’s national security and ability to combat its economic crisis (GIS, Crisis Group).


Resolution Criteria:  
This question will resolve “Yes” if reputable open-source news reports indicate that the Lebanese parliament has appointed a president.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 65%
No 35%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 60
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60
Number of Forecasts 600
Average for questions older than 6 months: 227
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Jan 02, 2024 05:00PM UTC - Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC 9%
Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC - Jul 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC 6%
Jul 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC - Jan 09, 2025 02:00PM UTC 65%

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username