Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Closed Jan 09, 2025 02:00PM UTC
In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a successor despite multiple votes, and the country remains in the hands of a caretaker administration (Associated Press, Reuters). This extended period without a president presents a serious risk to Lebanon’s national security and ability to combat its economic crisis (GIS, Crisis Group).
Lebanon's parliament elected Joseph Aoun president on 9 January 2025.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxzxd32lzvo
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/middleeast/joseph-aoun-elected-lebanon-president-intl/index.html
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 65% | |
No | 35% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 60 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
Number of Forecasts | 600 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 227 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Scored Periods
Scores for forecasts between | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|
Jan 02, 2024 05:00PM UTC - Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC | 9% |
Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC - Jul 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC | 6% |
Jul 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC - Jan 09, 2025 02:00PM UTC | 65% |