Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Jan 9, 2025)
Closed Jan 09, 2025 02:00PM UTC
In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a successor despite multiple votes, and the country remains in the hands of a caretaker administration (Associated Press, Reuters). This extended period without a president presents a serious risk to Lebanon’s national security and ability to combat its economic crisis (GIS, Crisis Group).
Lebanon's parliament elected Joseph Aoun president on 9 January 2025.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxzxd32lzvo
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/middleeast/joseph-aoun-elected-lebanon-president-intl/index.html
This question is a resolved time period from Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 65% | |
| No | 35% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 56 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 487 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 233 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |