lowering as others have noted appears China has better opportunities for soft power than military power at this point
0.060722
Relative Brier Score
65
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 74 | 65 | 912 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 61 | 56 | 408 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 31 | 27 | 165 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 147 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(-23%)
Yes
83%
(+23%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They're also flexing military muscle in other areas
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Changing politics and response to Israel increase chances to 25% but still mostly unlikely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Growing response to Israel could spillover from Europe to Middle East?
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 14, 2025 02:10PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(-13%)
Yes
Sep 14, 2025 to Mar 14, 2026
70%
(+13%)
No
Sep 14, 2025 to Mar 14, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
lowering due to passage of time and unexpected stability
Files
Why might you be wrong?
still plenty of possibilities for economic breakdown
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
3%
(+1%)
Armenia
1%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
only a slight change from before, don't see much changing
Files
Why might you be wrong?
with increased drone incursions into other states conflict could be more likely or it could be technical error
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than $21.0 billion
0%
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
5%
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
19%
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
76%
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
Most likely will receive everything it asked for in this environment
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They could make military cuts for the first time?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-3%)
Moldova
2%
(+1%)
Armenia
1%
(-5%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Making some slight adjustments with decreasing motivation for further attacks and waiting on peace talks regarding Ukraine
Files
Why might you be wrong?
depends on what happens with Ukraine and further invasion or desire for business
Files
Why do you think you're right?
passage of time
Why might you be wrong?
other things in the works