Forecasted Questions
Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2025 11:26AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Sep 15, 2025 11:26AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 7% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 93% | +5% | +0% |
Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2025 11:28AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Sep 15, 2025 11:28AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 51% | +39% | -29% |
| No | 10% | 49% | -39% | +29% |
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2025 07:10PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Sep 18, 2025 07:10PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Entity | 95% | 86% | +9% | +14% |
| Non-U.S. Entity | 95% | 56% | +39% | +12% |
How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2025 06:51PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Sep 24, 2025 06:51PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 4,499 | 0% | 6% | -6% | -2% |
| Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive | 15% | 12% | +3% | +1% |
| Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive | 70% | 75% | -5% | -2% |
| Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive | 15% | 7% | +8% | +2% |
| More than or equal to 6,000 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |