Forecasted Questions
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2025 11:26AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Sep 15, 2025 11:26AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2025 11:26AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Sep 15, 2025 11:26AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 7% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 93% | +5% | +0% |
Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2025 11:28AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Sep 15, 2025 11:28AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 57% | +33% | -23% |
| No | 10% | 43% | -33% | +23% |
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2025 07:10PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Sep 18, 2025 07:10PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Entity | 95% | 79% | +16% | +7% |
| Non-U.S. Entity | 95% | 55% | +40% | +12% |
What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2025 04:41PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 24, 2025 04:41PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 62% | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 62% but less than 66% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 66% but less than 70% | 50% | 4% | +46% | -14% |
| More than or equal to 70% but less than 74% | 50% | 96% | -46% | +15% |
| More than or equal to 74% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2025 06:51PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 24, 2025 06:51PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 4,499 | 0% | 6% | -6% | -2% |
| Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive | 15% | 12% | +3% | +1% |
| Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive | 70% | 75% | -5% | -1% |
| Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive | 15% | 7% | +8% | +2% |
| More than or equal to 6,000 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2025 06:02PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 26, 2025 06:02PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 15% | 2% | +13% | -4% |
| Not before 2026 | 85% | 98% | -13% | +4% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 05, 2025 07:47PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Oct 05, 2025 07:47PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |