191st
Accuracy Rank

hariseldon

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Forecasted Questions

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2025 11:26AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 1%
No 98% 99%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2025 11:26AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 7%
No 98% 93%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2025 11:28AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 90% 57%
No 10% 43%

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2025 07:10PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
U.S. Entity 95% 79%
Non-U.S. Entity 95% 55%

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2025 04:41PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 62% 0% 0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66% 0% 0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70% 50% 4%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74% 50% 96%
More than or equal to 74% 0% 0%

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2025 06:51PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 4,499 0% 6%
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive 15% 12%
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive 70% 75%
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive 15% 7%
More than or equal to 6,000 0% 1%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2025 06:02PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 0% 0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 0% 0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 0% 0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 15% 2%
Not before 2026 85% 98%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 05, 2025 07:47PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 2%
No 99% 98%
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