Forecasted Questions
Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 10:45PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Nov 30, 2025 10:45PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 4% | +11% | -8% |
| No | 85% | 96% | -11% | +8% |
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Nov 30, 2025 11:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $350 million | 10% | 40% | -30% | +1% |
| More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million | 30% | 38% | -8% | +3% |
| More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million | 30% | 15% | +15% | -2% |
| More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million | 20% | 5% | +15% | -1% |
| More than or equal to $650 million | 10% | 1% | +9% | +0% |
Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:08PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Nov 30, 2025 11:08PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 5% | +7% | -2% |
| No | 88% | 95% | -7% | +2% |
How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:08PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Nov 30, 2025 11:08PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 4,499 | 21% | 8% | +13% | +0% |
| Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive | 53% | 11% | +42% | +0% |
| Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive | 21% | 73% | -52% | -1% |
| Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive | 5% | 6% | -1% | +1% |
| More than or equal to 6,000 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:08PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Nov 30, 2025 11:08PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | 20% | +70% | +0% |
| No | 10% | 80% | -70% | +0% |
Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:08PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Nov 30, 2025 11:08PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 36% | -31% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 64% | +31% | +0% |
Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Nov 30, 2025 11:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 45% | -5% | -1% |
| No | 60% | 55% | +5% | +1% |
Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2025 11:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Nov 30, 2025 11:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 28% | -13% | +0% |
| No | 85% | 72% | +13% | +0% |