mjehlenbach

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Forecasted Questions

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 07, 2025 08:04PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 19% 10%
No 81% 90%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 20, 2025 12:29AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 4% Oct 20, 2025 to Apr 20, 2027 Jan 20, 2026 6%
No 96% Oct 20, 2025 to Apr 20, 2027 Jan 20, 2026 94%
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