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New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 20, 2025 to Apr 20, 2027
96%
(0%)
No
Oct 20, 2025 to Apr 20, 2027
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
Yes
81%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Major advances in synthetic biochemistry have been made in recent decades.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The upheaval of American scientific research infrastructure by the Trump administration.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 22, 2025 08:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(-3%)
Yes
Aug 22, 2025 to Feb 22, 2026
97%
(+3%)
No
Aug 22, 2025 to Feb 22, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Has been months since US presidential election, which seemed to be main predictive factor
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unpredictability of Kim Jong Un
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 22, 2025 08:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-9%)
Yes
Aug 22, 2025 to Feb 22, 2027
96%
(+9%)
No
Aug 22, 2025 to Feb 22, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Advancing talks to end Russo-Ukrainian war
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unpredictability of Putin and his regime
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 23, 2025 01:24AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 23, 2025 to Jan 23, 2026
94%
(0%)
No
Jul 23, 2025 to Jan 23, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
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