Confirmed previous forecast
0.001536
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 6 | 131 | 85 | 630 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 18 | 10 | 47 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 6 | 16 | 9 | 35 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2027
88%
(0%)
No
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026
96%
(0%)
No
Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
5%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 11, 2025 02:00PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 11, 2025 to Apr 11, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Oct 11, 2025 to Apr 11, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 11, 2025 to Apr 11, 2027
88%
(0%)
No
Oct 11, 2025 to Apr 11, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files