Forecasted Questions
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts
27 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 12:03PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 25, 2025 12:03PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 10% | 4% | +6% | -1% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct | |||
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts
30 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 12:03PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 25, 2025 12:03PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 8% | 6% | +2% | +0% |
| Armenia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 5% | 3% | +2% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 12:03PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 25, 2025 12:03PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026 | Dec 25, 2025 | 2% | +2% | +1% |
| No | 96% | Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026 | Dec 25, 2025 | 98% | -2% | -1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
31 Forecasts
31 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 12:03PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 25, 2025 12:03PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts
23 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 12:03PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 25, 2025 12:03PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2027 | Feb 25, 2026 | 6% | +6% | +0% |
| No | 88% | Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2027 | Feb 25, 2026 | 94% | -6% | +0% |
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 25, 2025 12:04PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 25, 2025 12:04PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026 | Dec 25, 2025 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Nov 25, 2025 to May 25, 2026 | Dec 25, 2025 | 99% | +0% | +0% |