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olavo_sg

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 3, 2022 and Oct 3, 2022) 0.0003
Aug 01, 2022 01:52PM UTC Will the Council of the European Union announce sanctions on the provision of cloud services to Russia before 31 July 2022? -0.000052
Jul 31, 2022 04:00AM UTC Will the French data protection authority (CNIL) announce a fine against Clearview AI before 31 July 2022? 0.001978
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? 0.020889
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) 0.197887
Jun 04, 2022 04:00AM UTC What will be the price of crude oil futures on 3 June 2022? -0.000912
Jun 02, 2022 01:40PM UTC What will be the price per ton of aluminum on 1 June 2022? 0.195469
May 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 3, 2022 and May 3, 2022) -0.001753
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? 0.217506
Apr 27, 2022 09:00PM UTC When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD? -0.078747
Apr 03, 2022 10:00PM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 3, 2022 and Apr 3, 2022) -0.000484
Mar 01, 2022 05:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive? 0.00906
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? -0.249714
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021) -0.039202
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022? -0.050316
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? 0.125554
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM UTC How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.101807
Jan 31, 2022 02:49PM UTC How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.017685
Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM UTC How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.140084
Jan 04, 2022 01:22PM UTC How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.183546
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