Confirmed previous forecast
0.000434
Relative Brier Score
24
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(+11%)
Yes
Sep 28, 2025 to Mar 28, 2027
80%
(-11%)
No
Sep 28, 2025 to Mar 28, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
Going slightly up due to the increase in Russian aggression and recent suspicious disruptions towards NATO countries
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Improved cyber security within NATO countries might be coming
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(-20%)
Yes
40%
(+20%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Going down after considering the current rationale on why this might not occur and due to closing timelines
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might be underestimating how much time it could take for these controls to be implemented, therefore the likelihood might be even lower
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files