Forecasted Questions
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(20 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(20 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2025 05:27PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Nov 27, 2025 05:27PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 3% | 2% | +1% | -1% |
| Not before 2026 | 97% | 98% | -1% | +1% |
Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(20 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(20 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:16PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 04:16PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 23% | 18% | +5% | -3% |
| No | 77% | 82% | -5% | +3% |