Time drawing near, sides are far apart. Russia untrustworthy. Flamingo missiles having major effect
0.079088
Relative Brier Score
191
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 15 | 191 | 191 | 191 |
| Comments | 1 | 5 | 135 | 135 | 135 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 13 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
3%
(-7%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
97%
(+7%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Economic issues paramount, and Zelensky support slipping. Russia may agree to reduced demands.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Yes
88%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Nov 27, 2025 to May 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(+7%)
Less than $21.0 billion
31%
(+28%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
26%
(+5%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
20%
(-15%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
16%
(-25%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Why do you think you're right?
Still feel that Golden dome and Space Force costs will swell budget but revising due to constraints
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Will likely be negotiations and add-ons
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
49%
(0%)
Yes
51%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
68%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
8%
(0%)
30 days
7%
(0%)
31-60 days
7%
(0%)
61-90 days
10%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing estimate due to Trump ambivalence on Ukraine and Europe need to keep own protection up
Why might you be wrong?
Saber rattling by Russia with respect to NATO may force Europe's hand