Confirmed previous forecast
0.642432
Relative Brier Score
200
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 9 | 200 | 195 | 200 |
| Comments | 1 | 2 | 137 | 136 | 137 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 9 | 35 | 34 | 35 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Geopolitical Security,
Quickfire Forecasts,
Russia-Ukraine War,
Emerging Technology,
Forecaster Submissions
Most Active Topics:
Russia-Europe,
East Asia Security,
Cybersecurity,
Emerging Tech - AI
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Yes
88%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
3%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
2%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 26, 2025 to Jun 26, 2027
94%
(0%)
No
Dec 26, 2025 to Jun 26, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 26, 2025 to Jun 26, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Dec 26, 2025 to Jun 26, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
(+14%)
Yes
63%
(-14%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Moderate chance in next week of commitment. Negotiations are going nowhere, assignment of Russian assets to Ukraine blocked, and Putin rattling sabers at Baltics.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Europe always reticent to commit. May take a while to get consensus needed.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The criteria seem confusing. The Navy has long had hypersonic defensive missiles (SM-3 and SM-6) and the Army fields THAAD. Some these are above Mach 8 and can maneuver. Hypersonic glide weapons are already deployed by China, and we should be not far behind.
Why might you be wrong?
The specific offensive programs are expensive and require extensive testing. Even White Sands may be too limited to achieve full certification. These programs always go over time and budget.