Confirmed previous forecast
0.015617
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Not probable for March 2026
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden change in FDA policies
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It took 29 years improve the percentage just 10 percent. If we follow the trend these values for 2024 and 2025 are not likely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden external support
Files
