239th
Accuracy Rank

spaceman

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Forecasted Questions

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 06:19PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 1%
No 90% 99%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 06:22PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 7% 1%
No 93% 99%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 06:33PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 15% 6%
Armenia 2% 2%
Georgia 10% 3%
Kazakhstan 3% 1%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 06:35PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 60% 18%
No 40% 83%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(24 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 26, 2025 06:39PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 66% Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2027 Feb 26, 2026 6%
No 34% Nov 26, 2025 to May 26, 2027 Feb 26, 2026 94%
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