sunshine77

Efforts to negotiate a lasting ceasefire or peace between Russia and Ukraine have been consistently stymied. Currently, efforts by the US to negotiate a ceasefire or peace have largely ceased, indicating that it is unlikely that Russia and Ukraine will reach an agreement this year. Additionally, due to the intractability of both sides' positions on the war, a peace at this stage of the conflict seems incredibly unlikely.

The new CDC numbers update total cases to 1491 through September 16. With two weeks left in September, it is very probable that cases will increase above the 1499 limit for bucket 2. I have therefore lowered the probability that cases will be between 1350-1499 to 0%. I have also increased the likelihood of cases being between 1500-1649 to 98% due to the uptick in cases starting end of August. I have lowered the likelihood of cases being between 1650-1799 to 0% as cases, while cases are higher than they were over the summer, they are not increasing as rapidly as they were during the March outbreak. In order for cases to reach this bucket, there would need to be roughly 80 additional cases each week through the end of September. This seems highly unlikely as the highest number of cases seen in the current uptick is 31 from the week of August 17. 

Confirming previous forecast. Chinese-Indian relations continue to appear at a steady state.