twominds

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 Definitions
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Targeting satellites will be viewed as an aggressive move. Countries will most likely only take this action if they feel it is necessary to ward off an aggressor 

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Why might you be wrong?

If AI develops fast and capable and is able to be leveraged by the Russian cyber squads then it might be a test target within this time frame

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Trump is v concerned about China benefiting from the US in the AI race

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Why might you be wrong?

If China has a public failure with AI, and it reassures Trump that the US is clearly ahead in the AI race

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My First Question

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
twominds
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
91%
Less than 30 days
9%
30 days
0%
31-60 days
0%
61-90 days
0%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?

Putin isn’t interested in a ceasefire. Every day he gains more.

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Why might you be wrong?

If China pressures russia to end the war. 

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