RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC	Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?	0.24381
Dec 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2022 and Dec 6, 2022)	0.27777
Nov 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC	Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 6, 2022 and Nov 6, 2022)	0.494903
Jul 27, 2022 12:59PM UTC	How many tech startup layoff events will be recorded in July 2022?	-0.05596
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	-0.060769
Jul 21, 2022 01:00PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for June 2022?	0.100198
Jul 01, 2022 01:25PM UTC	Will Tether (USDT) trade below $0.95 at any time before 1 July 2022?	0.495976

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