raising the odds of peace in the short term given the ultimatums trump gave Churchill of the pale. while putin dismissed the plan, its pretty close to what he wants in the short term and knowing him, he will cynically agree to a peace plan only to rebuild his armies to make another go.
-0.945275
Relative Brier Score
57
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 7 | 64 | 57 | 256 |
| Comments | 1 | 5 | 46 | 39 | 150 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 67 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 22 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
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Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
20%
(+15%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
80%
(-15%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
who really knows anything.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Yes
93%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(+2%)
Yes
Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026
88%
(-2%)
No
Nov 28, 2025 to May 28, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
given the peace terms presented to the Ukrainians, the Chinese will only be emboldened to make a move.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
who really knows anything?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
99%
(+4%)
Yes
Nov 24, 2025 to May 24, 2027
1%
(-4%)
No
Nov 24, 2025 to May 24, 2027
Why do you think you're right?
im pretty sure this has already happened but attribution is the issue.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
objective uncertainty.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 24, 2025 to May 24, 2027
5%
(0%)
No
Nov 24, 2025 to May 24, 2027
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-7%)
Yes
95%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
i think this is a likely event, however with the passage of time and a deadline nearing, i have to lower the odds.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
who knows anything?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
there are long tail possibilities i am discounting. putin could drop dead or there could be a coup, or ...