I think the ceasefire will either not work, and last a very short time, or be the start of a semi-permanent ceasefire and thus last 3 months +.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(-10%)
Less than 30 days
6%
(-17%)
30 days
7%
(-3%)
31-60 days
15%
(+3%)
61-90 days
59%
(+27%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If a ceasefire happens but it somehow fails in the middle, my forecast would be wrong.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
Less than 30 days
23%
30 days
10%
31-60 days
12%
61-90 days
32%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
I think it will either be a very short ceasefire or ~half year long at least. I find it probable that both sides will want to take some time to regather their forces and resources. On the other hand it is also probable that they want to give the other side minimal time to prepare, and will break the agreement very soon (under a month).
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Why might you be wrong?
Some parameter I've missed, the sides have specific reasons to go for a between 1-3 month ceasefire or agreemeent.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I think benchmark performance increases will slow down, as the tasks to solve become harder for LLMs.
Why might you be wrong?
If some technical problems like attention problems in large contests, LLMs "losing focus", and the inherent inefficiencies of chain of thought get solved during this year I will probably be wrong.