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New Prediction
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I would say 0 given the passage of time. The EU’s total imports of Russian gas fell sharply from ~150 bcm in 2021 to ~52 bcm in 2024. https://energy.ec.europa.eu/news/repowereu-3-years-commission-takes-stock-progress-phase-out-russian-fossil-fuels-2025-05-16_en
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Why might you be wrong?
Quarterly import volumes can fluctuate with demand, e.g., winter heating.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It appears highly unlikely that the European Commission / Eurostat region will import 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from Russia in any single quarter of 2025. According to the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis (IEEFA), the EU’s pipeline gas imports from Russia via the only remaining major route (via TurkStream) ended transit through Ukraine as of 1 January 2025, which removed around 15 bcm per year of Russian pipeline gas. The threshold of 15 bcm in a quarter would require about 60 bcm per annum (15 × 4), which is well above the 35-39 bcm projected for 2025 total Russian gas exports to the EU.
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Why might you be wrong?
Some imported LNG might transit or be re-exported which complicates the situation.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirmed previous forecast. This is not the strategic priority for either China or India.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I am keeping 1% for any potential black swan event.
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