pugcaster

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2024 Season Stats

0.745044

Relative Brier Score

19

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 7 0 493
Comments 0 0 0 0 194
Questions Forecasted 0 0 7 0 115
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 44
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
pugcaster made their 7th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
1% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
2% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
pugcaster made their 4th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jan 9, 2025 07:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (0%)
Yes
Dec 9, 2024 to Jun 9, 2025
93% (0%)
No
Dec 9, 2024 to Jun 9, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
pugcaster made their 4th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Jan 9, 2025 07:06PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Dec 9, 2024 to Jun 9, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Dec 9, 2024 to Jun 9, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
pugcaster made their 4th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
pugcaster earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
pugcaster made their 4th forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Mar 9, 2025 06:22PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Dec 9, 2024 to Jun 9, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Updated since lack of progress despite being closer to resolution date

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
pugcaster made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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This forecast expired on Oct 13, 2024 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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