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4
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0
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New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-10%)
Yes
95%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Nvidia's stock price and market cap seems to be heavily dependent on trends and breakthroughs of the AI field.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Would there be a crypto boom that drives up Nvidia's chips demand again?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
That a correction did occur as forecasted last fall.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
That if OpenAI has a breakthrough in addressing the performance bottleneck within the next 3 months.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
85%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(+12%)
Yes
85%
(-12%)
No
Adjusting up slightly because Nvidia does have a shot at returning to #1 in market cap by May, but Nvidia is much more exposed to the geopolitical challenges and the volatility surrounding the AI/ML space compared to the Big Five.
Files