There are good rationales provided by @cmeinel and @p01yh15t0r :
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/115780
https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/115686
However there is no further news/information over internet.
Hence, I keep the forecast intact.
0.481883
Relative Brier Score
179
Forecasts
22
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 453 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 330 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 89 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 22, 2024 04:24PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 22, 2024 to Jul 22, 2024
Files
1) Internet does not provide anything new
2) @DKC provides more details here: https://www.infer-pub.com/comments/115443