Pec58

The chances of him losing electorally are much lower than 5% given his total control of the electroral process since 2004 - I would consider it as below 1%. However, this question counts the possibility of demise, either by a coup or "natural" death, which are both possible and have been  taken into account in multiple scenarios and hypotheticals. Putin has shown some symptoms of health issues during broadcasts, and some in his inner circle have suggested that he was suffering from a critical disease like cancer or Parkinsons. Additionally, we've seen a coup attempt this year which almost ended his rule or at least broke Russia's system of central government - taking into account his unpopularity, the increasing costs of the war, and an army bogged down in Ukraine, the context is still ripe for another coup from someone with enough power.