Forecasted Questions
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2025 05:33PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 30, 2025 05:33PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -14% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -10% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 5% | 2% | +3% | -12% |
| Not before 2026 | 95% | 98% | -3% | +36% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2025 05:38PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 30, 2025 05:38PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 0% | 68% | -68% | +4% |
| 30 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | -4% |
| 31-60 days | 0% | 6% | -6% | -2% |
| 61-90 days | 45% | 5% | +40% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 55% | 16% | +39% | +2% |