Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2025 03:09AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 28, 2025 03:09AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 11% | 6% | +5% | -1% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 4% | 3% | +1% | -1% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2025 03:09AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 28, 2025 03:09AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 47% | 67% | -20% | +3% |
| 30 days | 4% | 6% | -2% | -1% |
| 31-60 days | 12% | 6% | +6% | -1% |
| 61-90 days | 12% | 5% | +7% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 25% | 16% | +9% | -2% |