The international arms race in the space domain is currently at low levels of priority around the world, which is why countries are focusing instead on the capitalist commercial economic race.
0.583076
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 69 |
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
94%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The international arms race in the space domain is currently at low levels of priority around the world, not because countries are focusing on the capitalist commercial economic race
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
Yes
10%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Due to the recent investigations and activities border patrol have implemented on the past 6 months since DJT took presidency power, the forecast seize even more than the amount told before
Files
Why might you be wrong?
...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Chemical
15%
Biological
15%
Radiological
2%
Nuclear
Why do you think you're right?
Since the BWC entered into force, no officially documented cases of biological weapons use by State Parties in armed conflicts have been recorded. However, concerns and allegations have arisen regarding biological weapons programs in some countries. For example, during the 1980s, it was alleged that the Soviet Union maintained a biological weapons program despite being a BWC signatory. Similarly, in the 1990s, it was discovered that Iraq had developed a biological weapons program prior to the Gulf War. These cases highlight the BWC’s limitations, particularly due to the lack of a formal verification mechanism to ensure compliance by State Parties. While the BWC clearly prohibits the use of biological weapons, the absence of a robust verification system has created challenges in effectively implementing and monitoring the treaty. Nevertheless, to date, there is no confirmed evidence of biological weapons being used in armed conflicts since the Convention entered into force in 1975.
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Why might you be wrong?
The potential use of biological weapons in the coming years is a significant concern among experts, driven by several factors:
Advancements in Biotechnology and Artificial Intelligence (AI):
Rapid progress in biotechnology and AI has made it increasingly feasible to engineer pathogens with enhanced virulence or resistance to treatments. AI models trained on biological data could potentially be used to design pandemic-capable pathogens, raising alarms about the misuse of these technologies.
Evolving Threat Landscape:
The global security environment is shifting, with experts warning about the emergence of new threats, including the potential for AI-enhanced bioweapons. The integration of AI into biological research could lead to the creation of novel bioweapons, posing unprecedented challenges to global security.
International Concerns and Policy Responses:
International bodies are increasingly focused on the risks associated with biological weapons. The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), celebrating its 50th anniversary in 2025, faces challenges in keeping pace with scientific advancements. There is an urgent need to modernize the BWC to address the evolving threats posed by new technologies.
In summary, while the use of biological weapons remains prohibited under international law, the rapid advancement of biotechnology and AI, coupled with evolving geopolitical dynamics, has heightened concerns about the potential for their development and use in the near future. Ongoing vigilance, international cooperation, and robust policy frameworks are essential to mitigate these risks.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Egypt is currently grappling with a significant economic crisis characterized by high inflation, foreign currency shortages, and escalating debt levels. The Egyptian pound has depreciated by more than two-thirds against the dollar since March 2022, leading to a surge in the cost of living and eroding the standard of living for many Egyptian
Files
Why might you be wrong?
while international support and government reforms are in place to address Egypt's economic challenges, the situation remains precarious. The success of these measures will depend on the effective implementation of reforms and the stabilization of both domestic and international economic conditions.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?