There is a strong likelihood that the unique foreign policy tactics employed by the US would incentivise Russia to agree however they remain the ultimate power in Eastern Europe.
0.043069
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The higher probability is based on Russian leaders reflecting a willingness to work with US foreign policy.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 24, 2025 04:05PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Feb 24, 2025 to Aug 24, 2025
97%
No
Feb 24, 2025 to Aug 24, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
With Donald Trump in office, North Korea is likely strategizing to lower tensions with the western world and first step to doing so is not conducting tests.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
North Korea continues to remain in high tensions with South Korea, they may want to intimidate.
Files
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Dec 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Argentina
14%
Bolivia
14%
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
Argentina stands as the most financially at risk given their credit history. However defaulting is still a ways out and their economy stands enough to support continuing to pay external debt.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unpredictable circumstances might lead to Argentina suffering a loss of capital enough to suggest they would no longer be able to pay external debt.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
With the level of threat to NK's armed forces in Russia and their lack of national defense they will not engage in a strike.
Why might you be wrong?
The government's unpredictability is largely a function of why they are feared, its still possible.