There are so many economic and fiscal issues occurring in Egypt that would make it highly difficult for Egypt to avoid an economic crisis with each issue snowballing each other.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
Yes
20%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Other countries or international institutions could step in to help bail Egypt out of some of its issues which would help prevent a full-scale crisis.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
China is investing heavily in lithography technology, and has enough technological prowess that it will likely succeed in its research.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China's economic woes may distract government priorities, leading to less funding than would be necessary for effective research.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
China has historically not been highly interested in establishing military bases abroad outside of the special circumstance of Djibouti. Additionally, the US would work fervently to prevent any African country from agreeing to host a PLA military base, increasing the political difficulties for Chinese success in setting up new military bases.
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Why might you be wrong?
China has historically had security ties in the Sub-Saharan Africa, and if the UN does not feel sufficient to China, it may be incentivized to establish military bases to protect its interests in the region.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Egypt is in poor financial straits right now, and facing large geopolitical difficulties.
Why might you be wrong?
Shipping could increase again through the Suez Canal, and the price of oil could rise. Both of these would support the Egyptian economy.