With the escalating conflicts in recent years between Israel and Palestine, Ukraine and Russia, and more, along with the current unpredictability of the president of the United States, more powerful state actors are being given the opportunity to utilize violence and more nontraditional weaponry. Especially with the outbreak of COVID-19, the possibility of biological weaponry being developed within the next 5 years is extremely high, and it merely depends if there will be a conflict polarizing enough to utilize it by a state action. I can also see the situation in Taiwan escalating to a point of a couple dirty bombs going off, but not much else.
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Answer
15%
Chemical
50%
Biological
25%
Radiological
5%
Nuclear
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Why might you be wrong?
I may be overestimating the current President of the United States's instability and the violent state of the world, but especially with the willingness of Israel (a very probable nuclear power) to use "dirty" tactics during its conflict with the Palestinian forces, I can definitely see the possibility of alternative weaponry being brought into the forefront of country's minds.
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Why might you be wrong?
Trump actually has the ability to converse with Putin and to try to convince him so he might be able to broker a deal.