Confirmed previous forecast
-0.003326
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 18 | 17 | 102 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
US-SK trade deal with announced yesterday and while the deal did not include security issues, relations between the two countries have settled.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
SK President is coming to DC next month - if the meeting goes poorly then Trump could decide to pull out troops, but still unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
