Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2025 07:25AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 30, 2025 07:25AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 08:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 31, 2025 08:02PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 7% | 68% | -61% | +1% |
| 30 days | 6% | 6% | +0% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 10% | 6% | +4% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 16% | 5% | +11% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 61% | 16% | +45% | -1% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 08:04PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 31, 2025 08:04PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2027 | Jan 31, 2026 | 6% | +5% | +2% |
| No | 89% | Oct 31, 2025 to Apr 30, 2027 | Jan 31, 2026 | 94% | -5% | -2% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 08:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 31, 2025 08:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 3% | 6% | -3% | -1% |
| Armenia | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 4% | 3% | +1% | -1% |
| Kazakhstan | 4% | 1% | +3% | +0% |
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 08:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 31, 2025 08:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 10% | +20% | -13% |
| No | 70% | 90% | -20% | +13% |