Normalization will depend on a perception that Israel is fully supporting the rebuilding of Gaza, the eventual return of a reformed Palestinian Authority to govern it and a pathway to a Palestinian state at some point and these conditions won't all be fulfilled in the next six months.
0.874782
Relative Brier Score
60
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 87 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 28 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 17 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 10, 2025 09:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
Yes
Oct 10, 2025 to Apr 10, 2026
0%
No
Oct 10, 2025 to Apr 10, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might be wrong if Israel, perhaps because of a change in government, decides to move much more quickly on a timeline for a Palestinian state, believing this is the only way to achieve permanent peace and security for the Jewish state.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 1, 2025 12:02AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026
85%
(0%)
No
Feb 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 7, 2025 05:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 7, 2024 to Dec 7, 2025
85%
(0%)
No
Dec 7, 2024 to Dec 7, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 7, 2025 05:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 7, 2024 to Jun 7, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 7, 2024 to Jun 7, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Kuwait
0%
(-2%)
Oman
0%
(-2%)
Qatar
0%
(-2%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(-2%)
Tunisia
Why do you think you're right?
These countries will require an end to the war in Gaza and Israeli commitment to a pathway to Palestinian statehood before recognizing Israeli statehood.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If Israel unexpectedly ended the war in Gaza and said would support an eventual Palestinian state, these Arab countries would probably move to recognize Israeli statehood.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The E3 remain reluctant to impose snapback sanctions, fearing this could provoke Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
E3 could decide to support for snapback if they became convinced such a step would stop Iran from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
normalization will require a perception that Israel is supporting the rebuilding of Gaza, the eventual restoration of governance by the Palestinian authority, and a pathway to Palestinian statehood.
Why might you be wrong?
I could be wrong if Israel, perhaps because of a change in government, commits to supporting a Palestinian state out of a conviction that this outcome is the only way that can lead to longterm peace and security for the Jewish state.