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New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
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This forecast expired on Jun 19, 2025 10:31AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
May 19, 2025 to Nov 19, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
May 19, 2025 to Nov 19, 2025
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Top Forecaster - Dec 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Yes
100%
(+3%)
No
Talks haven not appeared to progress.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 19, 2024 08:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 28, 2024 09:37AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+40%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
10%
(-40%)
No
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
If Iran responds to the latest Israeli strikes, Israel's next move will be to target the nuclear facilities. Especially if Trump wins and the democrats are a lame duck.
There is a possibility that this happens after January though.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 14, 2024 09:46AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
50%
No
Oct 14, 2024 to Apr 14, 2025
It seem certain Israel will strike Iran, but a Nuclear facility might be too far. Something less overt and just as impactfl seems more likely.
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