Forecasted Questions
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 11:56AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 30, 2024 11:56AM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 18% | +2% | -29% |
| No | 80% | 82% | -2% | +29% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(21 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 12:14PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 30, 2024 12:14PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 4% | 4% | +0% | -8% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct | |||