There is a chance for update the current controls but it is small
0.216146
Relative Brier Score
25
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 25 | 25 | 37 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Need for more controls due to changes in , for example, China´s policies
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 27, 2025 10:08PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Oct 27, 2025 to Apr 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
9%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
9%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
60%
(0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 22, 2025 08:53PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 22, 2025 to Mar 22, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Sep 22, 2025 to Mar 22, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Updating the probability initially given to a Yes because i do not see a new control for AI before the end of 2026
Why might you be wrong?
Because of change of geopolitical policies that could affect directly the AI controls