RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
May 31, 2025 05:00PM UTC	On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?	-0.029148
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC	In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)	-0.322565
Jan 01, 2025 05:01AM UTC	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	0.003379
Dec 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 4, 2024 and Dec 4, 2024)	0.03
Dec 01, 2024 05:01AM UTC	Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?	-0.007173
Nov 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 4, 2024 and Nov 4, 2024)	0.607687
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC	Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)	-0.01523

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