Confirmed previous forecast
1.431288
Relative Brier Score
90
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 90 | 90 | 106 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 75 | 75 | 78 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 37 | 37 | 41 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than 250
4%
(0%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
9%
(0%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
41%
(0%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
45%
(0%)
More than or equal to 550
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-15%)
Yes
90%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Decreased tourism numbers.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Tourism rebound following limited rioting/ protests in west coast cities including Los Angeles. Less international news coverage of Trump administration immigration policies makes the US still appear to be an attractive holiday destination.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(+55%)
Yes
5%
(-55%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Strong increase in June numbers bringing back above long term trend. Big seizures recently reported in the news.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Seizures reported in news such as the Ecuador and Europe shipments are not sufficient to bring total above 50k mark. Especially if some seizures that would normally occur in July occurred in June, leading to June artificially inflated and July artificially lowered.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 31, 2025 09:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
94%
(0%)
No
Jul 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-7%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
44%
(-6%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
30%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
18%
(+11%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
3%
(+2%)
€30 billion or more
Why do you think you're right?
Europe is currently ahead by 7.05 billion as of end of April 2025. Some talks about US aid increasing, so projecting the 0-10 billion more likely than 10 - 20 currently. Furthermore, potential US aid of up to 13 billion possible by end of December 2025 (see 1/4 of 54 billion in two years: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/31/us/politics/senators-new-aid-ukraine.html)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
No new US aid and Europe continues to ramp up military spending and commitments to Ukraine.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
96%
(+22%)
Yes
4%
(-22%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating based on current burn areas.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Current estimates are overestimates and will also be revised down. Possible errors in measurements from smoke obscuring burned and untouched pastures/ forest.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
53%
(+2%)
Less than or equal to 1
43%
(-1%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
4%
(-1%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Updating to reflect low intensity season to date.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Multiple hurricanes in Gulf, California, and East Coast.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
1 day to go, and Iran no longer in new or a focus of Trump admin while in Scotland.
Why might you be wrong?
Heart attack of ayatollah and new leader moves very swiftly.