Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025?
Started
Jun 13, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
In May 2025, with Oman as the mediator, the United States and Iran held their fifth round of negotiations in Rome about Tehran’s nuclear program (AP News). President Trump expressed optimism about Iran’s willingness to reach an agreement, noting that a successful deal would save many lives (PBS). Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, while indicating that Iran is open to a deal, emphasized Iran’s resilience and ability to weather sanctions or other consequences if negotiations fail (Reuters).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve “Yes” if, before 1 August 2025, both the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear agreement that addresses Iran's nuclear program. For the purposes of this question, “announcing” a new nuclear deal requires official announcements by authorized government representatives from both countries confirming that their countries are party to a finalized agreement. Announcements may be made through direct press releases or statements or reported by major international news outlets like Reuters, the Associated Press, BBC, the New York Times, or others. Both countries must confirm the same agreement, but announcements need not be joint or coordinated.
The following will count for resolution:
- A comprehensive nuclear deal or substantive interim agreement with specific commitments
- Renewal, extension, or modification of a previous nuclear agreement (including the JCPOA)
- An agreement that may be pending legislative approval or implementation, provided the deal itself is finalized
The following will not be sufficient for resolution:
- Framework agreements, preliminary agreements, or memorandums of understanding
- Announcements of "intent to reach a deal" or "agreements in principle"
- Unilateral announcements by only one country