Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 8 | 374 | 8 | 613 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 228 | 3 | 259 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 8 | 54 | 8 | 79 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 27 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 4,499
2%
(0%)
Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive
96%
(0%)
Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive
2%
(0%)
Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6,000
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Initial forecast based on @ctsats rationales.
Given the bureaucratic timelines, political hurdles, and current lack of any new authorised deployment... it seems highly unlikely given the timeframe of 6 months.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden, unexpected escalation of conflict in a country that currently has no peacekeepers.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
(-8%)
Iván Cepeda
10%
(-5%)
Sergio Fajardo
40%
(+10%)
Abelardo de la Espriella
13%
(+3%)
Other
Why do you think you're right?
Tweaking due to the US strikes in Venezuela and subsequent developments. If many Colombians view U.S. intervention as an unjust external imposition, candidates critical of the U.S. might gain traction. If voters see the crisis primarily as evidence of regional insecurity and narco-trafficking spillover, tough security candidates could rise.
https://americasquarterly.org/article/maduros-fall-may-shape-colombias-election/
Recent polls show that De la Espriella has a lead.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Too early into the election.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
0%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
19
0%
18
0%
17
100%
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
The US wouldn't do it. South Korea and Japan's moves would depend on the US.
Germany won't move unilaterally. Germany is structurally almost immovable without a US shift due to the Staatsräson doctrine and coalition veto players.
Italy is the only possibility. I think Italy is more flexible than Germany. There was some movement in this regard in October '25.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/europe/2025/10/29/italy-is-inching-closer-to-recognition-of-state-of-palestine/
But overall I think the chances are pretty low given the timeline since Italy’s right-wing coalition is stable and pro-Israel.
No geopolitical trend points to imminent recognition waves.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden shift in US's stance could move the rest.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
100%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
0%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
