155th
Accuracy Rank

Hinterhunter

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0.393441

Relative Brier Score

288

Forecasts

23

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 19 22 306 288 1634
Comments 4 5 123 118 741
Questions Forecasted 19 22 59 54 226
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 3 28 23 296
 Definitions
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Hinterhunter
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Nov 2025

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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Hinterhunter
earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Nov 2025

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

Crowd forecast in too high here considering time remaining and public discourse (and thus public commitments) being about peace for the moment.

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Why might you be wrong?

Reversal of russian peace proposal?

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New Comment

I think we will soon have confirmation that this question will close as Yes.


[News] China’s SiCarrier Reportedly Eyes DUV Breakthroughs for 5nm, Debuting Products This Week

https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/03/25/news-huawei-linked-firm-reportedly-eyes-duv-breakthroughs-for-5nm-chips-debuting-products-this-week/

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Hinterhunter
made a comment:

As the wider world has increased interest in this question I've lost some interest, even as the topic remains relevant, as many geopolitical pieces have moved in the past 10 months.

However, this remains hard to decode for some : https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/11/10/news-decoding-chinas-lithography-push-to-challenge-asml-from-sicarrier-to-alternative-euv-paths/

I guess part of what I'm trying to say is that a side effect of our judgements here was judging the correct response the Trump administration and allies should take on this question, as well as the accuracy of the views of the Jamestown foundation on this matter.. This is were I have lost interest, as funding and diplomatic priorities have been defined.

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New Prediction
Hinterhunter
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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