Confirmed previous forecast
0.390476
Relative Brier Score
297
Forecasts
23
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 29 | 307 | 297 | 1643 |
| Comments | 1 | 5 | 124 | 119 | 742 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 26 | 57 | 55 | 227 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 3 | 25 | 23 | 296 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-3%)
Yes
91%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time, lack of policy relevance
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
89%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
2%
(0%)
30 days
1%
(0%)
31-60 days
2%
(0%)
61-90 days
6%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
time over
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-3%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
time over
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
going to zero. In retrospect, the Trump administration gave several signs that this was not their thing.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Serbia would count? https://gmk.center/en/news/serbia-to-introduce-national-carbon-tax-from-2026/
Why might you be wrong?
maybe not?