sepeskoe

The UN has a funding crisis.  They are ~$3B in the hole from just deliquent dues.   The US is responsible for some 90% of this shortfall.  And I don't see Trump et al hurrying up to write checks to an organization that he considers corrupt, wasteful, controlled by countries hostile to him, etc.    https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/30/world/americas/un-finances-collapse-debts.html

The UN is now pulling 10,000-15,000 troops out of peacekeeping missions -- with a general reduction / contraction of 15% across all peacekeeping missions.

There is just no money for new missions this year.  

I'm going with history on this -- as the question states, the vast majority of major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin occur in the August/September timeframe.  Long range forecasts appear to suggest a slighty higher than normal hurricane season this year.  (All forecasts I've looked at expect 3-4 majors, but with quite low confidence.)

Seems like all forecasts are highly dependent upon a very uncertain El Nino formation and duration.

https://www.eurotempest.ltd/wp-content/uploads/TSRATLForecastDecember2026.pdf

Military exercises are getting repeated closer to the main island's shores.  As the US is playing around in Venezuela, Iran, Greenland and elsewhere, I think it's highly likely that the PLA is going to test US's attention and resolve in defending Taiwan.

I'm concerned that HHS isn't going to be doing the safest, best controlled quality research over the next few years, so I'm a little inspired to increase my likelihood that such an event might occur.  However, I also think that HHS is going to be wasting time dealing with maladies other than the viruses that can cause such events -- so that suppresses my inclination to increase the likelihood.

Maybe I'm naive, but I do think the current research dealing with organisms that could cause such events is primarily of a defensive nature (even if the research in vaccines has been greatly slowed).  Yes, organisms can escape in biodefense experimentation, but they aren't generally the most virulent sorts.  Since May 2025 there's been a ban on US funded gain-of-function research, so there is less likelihood that one of these superbugs could escape and cause a Covid-like event.

However, there is still going to be work in China and perhaps other countries that can lead to another Covid-like event.

There are many candidate uses for LLM-assisted medical devices, but there still isn't a process for FDA to approve such devices.  Too many unknowns about the specific requirements for proof of efficacy and safety, and for testing.  These will eventually be worked out, but not within the forecasting window.