sepeskoe

The FDA is still working on regulatory guidelines for LLM-based medical devices.  I don't think the guidelines will be completed enough before 31 March '26 for any manufacturer to establish conformity with these guidelines that will enable FDA approval within the forecasting window.  Normally it takes at least 6 months for FDA approval even for Priority reviews, and I'd expect the FDA to take much longer for the first applications under the new guidelines.

I didn't do an exhaustive search, but I don't think there are any LLM-based equipment proposals already in the queue, so there just isn't sufficient time to get approval in the window.

https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/fda-ai-medical-device-tracker

Russia is just barely agreeing to negotiate and they have terms that are absolutely unacceptable to Ukraine.  I think it's pretty clear that Russia doesn't want peace unless it's peace at their terms -- and several of these terms violate Ukraine's sovereignty -- a deal that Ukraine (and most of Europe) won't accept.

With the peace deal negotiations underway, I don't think it's likely that European countries will do anything to tip the balance unless Russia walks away from the table.  If a European guarantee of Ukraine's security is maintained in the peace agreement, then there isn't a need for Europe to commit to the launchers near term.  Only if Russia walks away, or rejects terms that are mandatory from Ukraine's POV (eg, the security agreement) will a European country step up near term with additional weaponry.

I'm sticking with my 0% yes vote.  I haven't found any hints anywhere that China (PLA) is looking to move forward from 2027.  There are of course world events that can move the preparation forward or back -- eg, AI chip deals with the US making the Taiwanese chips slightly less important for China.