In 2024 there were no seed round funding awarded in December. I expect that may not be unusual, so I'm thinking we are probably at the total for 2025. As I expect the world to continue with it's volatile path for the next year, I'm thinking by doubling what we have for this year, we wind up in the lowest bin.
0.099083
Relative Brier Score
286
Forecasts
141
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 19 | 317 | 286 | 2516 |
| Comments | 6 | 23 | 352 | 329 | 1862 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 9 | 28 | 23 | 111 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 9 | 162 | 141 | 1835 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
38%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
38%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
18%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Investors may want to jump onto some AI-driven biotech startup and after a year of caution may be ready to invest with larger amounts in 2026.
Files
FWIW, 40M were added on Dec 1, the 4th biggest seed round in 2025 so far (although it is for a US company, hence not applicable here): https://www.labiotech.eu/biotech-funding-2025-tracker/ 😉
Also FWIW, the said round is not included (yet?) in the Fierce Biotracker (last updated on Dec 3).
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
71%
(-9%)
Less than 30 days
2%
(0%)
30 days
9%
(+3%)
31-60 days
9%
(+3%)
61-90 days
9%
(+3%)
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Spreading out to some of the higher bins. The rationale of @JonathanMann makes a lot of sense to me.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe I should be higher on the highest bin. If Russia gets everything it wants, Putin might not violate it.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Yes
60%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming. This has a longer timeline, but the bar is higher IMHO. Since mirror products aren't expected this soon, this seems about right.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It could have died out of the press because of lack of progress, or other health crisis and I should be lower. Or it could progress faster than I expect and the concern of risk may increase, and I should be higher.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
65%
(+5%)
Yes
35%
(-5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Moving a bit higher on this based on what could be a very public pushing of the issue as the world moves toward space travel and exploration. IMHO.
This article describes an unlikely, but possible risk:
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Another health crisis (pandemic, world-war) could drive mirror life out of the news cycles. And possibly funding to support it.
Files
I agree @404_NOT_FOUND and I believe the authors of the article described them as possible black swans. But, I am not addressing what the risk is that those conditions will be met, rather the public concern that is raised by articles such as this. If everyone was as rational as you, I would be lower. Sadly, that is not what I have observed. And governments like to make bold grandstanding moves when people are frightened, IMHO.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
36%
(-2%)
Less than $350 million
38%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
18%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
5%
(+1%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
3%
(+1%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Why do you think you're right?
Edging a bit more into higher bins based on the idea that AI will lead to more cost-effective biotech research that may be attractive to seed grant money.
FTA:
The iShares Biotechnology ETF (NYSE:IBB) has risen for six straight months, notching its longest winning streak since 2012. But it's not just about consistency—the strength of the move is historic.
The sector is up 40% in that stretch, making it the best 6-month rolling return for biotech since September 2003.
Biotech has been a long-underperforming sector that is now finally getting a structural narrative: AI is beginning to solve the cost and efficiency challenges that have plagued pharmaceutical R&D for decades.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Political upheavals may drive more money into defense/drone research.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
A nail-biter...
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/putin-meet-togos-president-kremlin-2025-11-19/
FTA:
MOSCOW/LOME, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet Togo's president, Faure Gnassingbe, in the Kremlin on Wednesday for talks that will focus on developing ties between Moscow and the tiny phosphate-producing country on the West African coast.
...
"Their Excellencies will hold a one-on-one meeting focused on strengthening bilateral cooperation, particularly in the fields of diplomacy, economy, trade, agriculture, energy, training, and food security," it said.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Moving up a couple of points. It's in the news at Stanford:
https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/health-policy-forum-possible-peril-engineered-mirror-life
IMHO makes it slightly more likely to be formally addressed in a major meeting.
FTA:
While such “mirror life” is unlikely for at least a decade and would require substantial funding and major breakthroughs, it’s the kind of risk we should anticipate now, according to David Relman, MD, a professor of medicine and of microbiology and immunology and a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
“For me, it was two years of gradually coming to grips with the possibility that, now, for the first time, there was something that could conceivably threaten much of life on the planet,” said Relman, a founding member of the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity and a former senior advisor in the Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy at the White House.
Relman was a headliner at the recent Stanford Health Policy Forum: Engineered Threats to Global Health, in conversation with Hank Greely, JD, a law professor who focuses on ethical, legal, and social issues in the biosciences and director of the Center for Law and the Biosciences at Stanford Law School. The talk was moderated by Paul Costello, an adjunct professor in the Stanford Department of Medicine.
Why might you be wrong?
A new pandemic or environmental health crisis (i.e. microplastics or wildfire smoke) could drive it out of the news and these discussions/formal addresses could get pushed past the 2030 deadline.