Confirmed previous forecast
-0.062113
Relative Brier Score
274
Forecasts
57
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 6 | 20 | 284 | 274 | 444 |
| Comments | 6 | 19 | 270 | 260 | 309 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 13 | 32 | 27 | 38 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 60 | 57 | 127 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Togo
Why do you think you're right?
Moving my probability estimate down by a few percentage points because of the passage of time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Russia and Togo are cooperating more and more, and deployment could come any day now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
As noted in my last update, the US is moving in the opposite direction. Donald Trump just signed an executive order which aims to constrain the ability of states to regulate artificial intelligence.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The executive order could be found to be unlawful and Congress could move in a pro-regulation direction. But none of this will happen before 2026.
Files
I agree that there won't probably be much proper regulation, though Trump's executive order references a few specific examples of where he wants Congress to intervene.
That framework should also ensure that children are protected, censorship is prevented, copyrights are respected, and communities are safeguarded. [1]
These have the potential to create binding requirements and thus satisfy the resolution criteria.
[1] Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
With little over two weeks to go, I am confirming my forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There could be a sudden Russian breakthrough in the next couple of weeks, but that seems incredibly unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
With little over two weeks left, I am confirming my forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There's no conceivable way that this question could resolve positively at this stage.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming my forecast. I'm probably below 1% for each of these countries at this stage, but not yet below 0.5%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It wouldn't take a huge invasion for the question to resolve positively, and you can imagine Russia trying something if, for instance, the Europeans put boots on the ground to try to safeguard Ukraine's security.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
5%
(0%)
Armenia
1%
(-1%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Reducing my probability estimate for an invasion of Georgia by one percentage point due to the passage of time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Talks between the US and Ukraine and the US and Russia continue, but there isn't any sign of an imminent resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war, so an invasion of Moldova remains somewhat elevated, and Armenia continues to pivot toward the West, with the 6th meeting of the EU-Armenia partnership council having recently been held, so an invasion of Armenia isn't totally off the cards either.
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.