Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts
29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2025 02:43PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 21, 2025 02:43PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 6% | 6% | +0% | +0% |
| Armenia | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
| Georgia | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
29 Forecasts
29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2025 02:45PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 21, 2025 02:45PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2025 02:48PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 21, 2025 02:48PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2025 02:52PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 21, 2025 02:52PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2025 02:53PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Nov 21, 2025 02:53PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 03:05PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 29, 2025 03:05PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 03:30PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 29, 2025 03:30PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 3% | -1% | +1% |
| No | 98% | 97% | +1% | -1% |
How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 03:33PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 29, 2025 03:33PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 18 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| 17 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| 16 or fewer | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 03:34PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 29, 2025 03:34PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 7% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 96% | 93% | +3% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 29, 2025 03:40PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Nov 29, 2025 03:40PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |