Confirmed previous forecast
-0.055786
Relative Brier Score
285
Forecasts
59
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 16 | 279 | 16 | 471 |
| Comments | 6 | 13 | 260 | 13 | 331 |
| Questions Forecasted | 6 | 8 | 26 | 8 | 38 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 2 | 51 | 2 | 131 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
The UAE accepted Trump's invitation to become a member of his Board of Peace and Egypt said it is considering doing so. This could be considered a proxy for relations with the US administration and suggests that there's no breakdown of relations between the US and these countries on the horizon.
It's still possible that the EU sanctions one of these countries, but Jordan is a key partner in the Middle East, cooperation with Egypt on Mediterranean issues is needed, and European countries are trying to boost trade with the Gulf region.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The increased focus on sanctioned Russian oil could incriminate an entity in one of these countries, I guess.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
19
0%
(0%)
18
0%
(0%)
17
100%
(0%)
16 or fewer
Why do you think you're right?
With just three days to go, this is virtually impossible now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some behind the scenes manoeuvring that I'm not aware of.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
It still seems to me that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are currently on the back foot. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recently ended the RSF's two-year siege of Dilling city in the South Kordofan region.
Moreover, some refugees are returning to Khartoum, signifying that the risk of a takeover by the RSF is currently perceived as low.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There could be a sudden RSF breakthrough, but that seems unlikely in just a two month period.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming my forecasts here, as not enough time has passed since my last update to take me below 0.5% for any of the countries.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A rupture in the NATO alliance could provide an opening for Putin, should he wish to exploit it.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
4%
(0%)
Armenia
0%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Moldova is withdrawing from a number of Russian-led initiatives, including the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). This might increase Putin's desire to invade the country, but it seems relatively insulated from Russian interference at the moment, with the pro-EU party having retained its majority in Parliament and with the war in Ukraine still largely frozen.
Confirming my forecasts overall.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden Russian breakthrough in Ukraine could threaten Moldova.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(-1%)
Yes
45%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Mirror biology continues to get attention, including in communities that have a fair amount of financial backing (such as the Effective Altruism community):
https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/james-smith-mirror-biology-catastrophe/
However, I'm reducing my probability estimate by a percentage point because of the passage of time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Mirror biology might not be considered an urgent priority by any of these governments or blocs.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The probability of this happening is now basically zero, with just a few hours left to go.
Why might you be wrong?
Some behind-the-scenes negotiations that no one was aware of.